Skip to main content

tv   Fast Money  CNBC  May 8, 2013 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT

5:00 pm
tough sale for hedge fund managers to convince wealthy investors to pay up with those high fees that will do it for us tonight. thanks for joining us. the market today another all-time high, dow up. and 1632 for the market. that will do it for closing bell. see you tomorrow, right here, same time, same place. here is "fast money." welcome to the nasdaq markets new york city's times square. i'm melissa lee. house of lies, three of the biggest fears about the housing market may not be what they are. we are separating fact from fiction and give you the trade. do you yahoo!? the stock's near a five-here high. are there cracks in the story. a top analyst reveals whether there is room to run. up in smoke, why the days of the conventional cigarette could be numbered. the ceo of an e-cigarette company is a threat to big tobacco.
5:01 pm
straight to our lead story, the dow closing at a record high, holding on to that 15 k level. as the market climbs steadily, is there reason to tread carefully? and guy, you know, as much as people may want to hate this rally, this is the market that you have. >> i'm not convinced everybody hate it is as much as we like to believe they hate it. it has been a very constructive, pull backs along the way, not deep but pull backs along the way. technically the market has done everything right. i said it last night, said it a while, knowing to indicate going, having that correction any time soon. we talked about it a couple weeks ago when the s & p was 1570. stayed ain't staying here. i favored the downsideful. i said let the price be your guide, 50 points either way in a week. here we are 50 points later. i think an interesting level. 1625. i still think 1570 is your line in the sand, stay above that we are fine. >> one of the thinks i love/hate for wall street analysts they
5:02 pm
use consensus as a contrarian indicator. and so, the thesis has been that people are bearish this market, therefore, the mark let go higher. what point does that bearish thesis become consensus in that it's a contrarian indicator? >> we are not there yet. we talked about a couple level its, 1670 to the upside on the downside, more important. you have support in this market at 1600. before anyone gets nervous, you still have that line in the sand there. >> josh? >> we have crunched the data on this countless times. zero value to be found in week-to-week survey, whether they are of pros or retail. those surveys are really only great signals, from a counterintuitive standpoint, at major extreme. what i would focus on is not what people say. i like to focus on what people do let me explain to you what's happening now. the pension funds that have missed about four or five years of upside are now warming up to the idea of stocks. that is not something that stops and starts on a dime. it takes a while. so, i don't think that we want
5:03 pm
to say, all right, everyone's in, now here we turn around. i think what we do want to say is, look, the last time we were at these levels, earnings were about 30% lower, bond yields triple what they are. this has room to go as people take the misallocated portfolios and make the changes years overdo. >> may be pressure to performing. bank of america took a look at large cap portfolio managers, mutual funds, 42%, only 42% yoe outperformed their bench mark, the russell 1,000. look at hedge fund performance the month of march, up 3% compared to the s & p 500 more than that, 6%. the race for performance may be that. >> i do think this it is a meaningful contributor as, you know it has been difficult in the straight up market to outperform if you are a hedge fund. when i look at this -- you know, this rally, a lot of people probably feel like i do. well, wow, the rally is really strong. my stuff, i still want to hold.
5:04 pm
my stuff's still good. but maybe everything else is getting overpriced. i don't know. who knows where the market will go for us, i want to keep what i own. i like what i own. but i had to buy a little bit of protection today as the volatility index comes down. i want to be buying some of those puts that are relatively cheaper to let me sleep at night and own what i own. >> to that point, i'm still long my utility, i'm long southern. i want to hold it because i'm not long much higher than right here. but i'm still long my apple, still long my google. i have a presence in the market. i don't want to give up what i own. >> cautiously optimistic? you recognize the fact that the markets look like they are melting higher but be on the safe side. >> i would add to both steve and karen, i agree with both of what they said. look, we still have this tina issue, there is no alternative. say you liquidate 20% of your portfolio because of a sentiment survey, somebody on tv says something that makes you nervous. that's great. the next day the day after what am i doing? still sitting on this cash, a
5:05 pm
negative real rate of return at this point. you end up rebuying, whether you buy something else or go back into what you sold that is punishing people as prices have moved higher. so, that's still in force. i have no idea what changes that dynamic. >> so, where should you put your money to work that is the question we are asking tonight, getting your strategy from a top hedge fund manager. the chairman and founder of graham capital management joins us this evening from las vegas at the salt conference. great to have you with us, ken. >> thanks. great to be here. >> ask you first about this notion of the tina, there is no alternative. are you a buyer of that in that you would say go into u.s. equities because there isn't a better place on a relative basis compared to other assets or other markets? >> i happen to agree with that right now. i do. we are in a situation we have global monetary easing and really not getting a return on fixed income. so investors have to consider equities, even though they have gone up a lot. they probably are going to continue.
5:06 pm
>> ken, it's karen. let me ask you what inning do you think we are in then of this rotation? >> well, i think you have to look at, you know, when will the central banks potentially tighten? and i don't believe they are going to tight than year. i don't believe they are going to tighten in the first half of next year, maybe in the second half of 2014. so are we in the fifth inning, sixth inning? i don't think we are in the ninth inning. that doesn't mean we won't have corrections, i think we will. any healthy market move is going to have some pull backs. >> ken, my former life, we traded a lot of commodities with your firm. i'm curious to know where you stand on the commodity market now. folks saying the commodity cycle over. i'm not in that camp. curious to know what you think. >> you know, i think commodities are going to be choppy and tough to trade. commodities are a sterile asset if you are talking about, for example, gold. you only make money on gold when it goes up. there is no dividend, no return on it. so, you know, if you think that
5:07 pm
global growth is going to be accelerating, then commodities should go up in value. if you think, as i do, that global growth is going to be slow, then commodities are less interesting and other assets look more attractive. >> so you think global growth is going to be slow and you also like u.s. equities? sort of overlay the two theories, does that mean you like u.s. equities with limited global exposure? >> you know, i think obviously, asia's done really well. the nikkei has had an enormous rally the last three or four months. so, i think there are opportunities internationally as wel well. europe is starting to look better. i think the story in the u.s. economically is better than the story in europe. and i would want to favor, you know, the u.s. a little bit more than europe for that reason. >> what types of stocks within the u.s., ken? >> well, i'm not an individual stock picker. i think that, you know, if i had to -- you know, pick one sector,
5:08 pm
straightforward names, not high-flying names, infrastructure companies in the united states should do well. >> and in terms of what you're most excited about in your portfolio right now in terms of upside the next 12 months or so, ken, what would that be? >> you know, again, we are long equity indices around the world. we think that will do well. we have had a long credit exposure that's done well. we think that the currency markets are beginning to trade again in a more interesting fashion. we have been short the yen. that has been a good trade for us. we think dollar yen could go a little higher so there's some opportunities in that also, some of the currencies that have high yield look attractive to us relative to the ones that don't. >> ken, we are going to leave it there thanks so much for joining us. we appreciate it. >> thank you very much. >> ken tropen of graham joining us from the salt conference this evening. let's move to another big conference, a meeting of some of the biggest money on the street,
5:09 pm
today's ira stone conference features some presentations from noted investors. cnbc's kate kelly joins us there kate, so you many stocks on the move today because of what was said at that conference. >> no, absolutely, melissa. this conference does tend to be a big drown dra you in that regard, people come and prevent one or more of their best long and short ideas to give you a little bit of a flavor of what we have heard today and people reacting to, paul singer of elliott management kicked off the proceedings by essentially speaking negatively about the developed countries and their government bonds. he said particularly if you are holding u.s., japanese or european debt, you should simply know you own assets which are trading at the wrong price by 50 to 100 basis points or more and if you own them, you should just know, a, about the distortion, and b, that there is no safe haven in today's market. so, a pretty bearish world view, even on the g-7 countries. then we heard from steve
5:10 pm
yzerman, made famous by his per 'tis passion in the big housing short. these days, bullish on house, gave us three different twice play a housing or financial recovery with different angles with each company. in particular, he highlighted forester, aquinn and colony financial. he essentially thinks these good companies, for various reasons are good plays on house an finance. he said in particular that aquinn was the most levered way to play house in the entire financial sector, bar none. he really talked up this stock. he said the upside is a lot, in summation. finally, jim chanos, highly anticipated after spending some time with us about two weeks ago. he spoke about the drugmakers and that was a short, in his case. he particularly wants to short c gate and western digital. he says essentially, most people have far too much storage, cloud computing makes the storage process a lot more efficient and the business model of these companies are endangered. looking the seagate, he said take note of the fact within the last year alone, a lot of inside verse been selling their holdings and that just last night, the number three
5:11 pm
executive at the company, melissa, abruptly quit a number of bearish factors in the air there for seagate, in particular, according to the famous short, jim chanos. >> kate kelly, thanks for rounding all that action up for us. start off with chain knows' move. it does seem like a corollary trade, short hewlett-packard trade he has been in in terms of western dig and seagate. >> he does his homework. these stocks got obliterated a year or so ago. all come raging back. the idea they become come not advertised or move into the space that may be true. you look at the stock performance the last six months specifically, try to play it from the short side, it has been extraordinary difficult. you have to be careful blindably going short. >> what chain knows is saying on the strife stocks to the guide point he is looking at the cloud and saying native storage on your device is a thing of the past. he is not talking about anything
5:12 pm
other than these being another value trap within tech wherein the innovation has moved past what the companies are useful for. you look at the things, they look cheap but thinks they are deceptively cheap and made the case with pc-related stocks a couple years ago and still been on that case. i think if you are a tech investor, you are not looking for cheap stocks and low valuations, you are looking for innovation and you are not really finding them in the drivemaker. i totally get what he is trying to say there >> iseman is playing the housing markets seem interesting in i'm sure there are a lot of people who want to participate, believers in the housing recovery but seen the xhb and home builders pass them by, along with a lot of the suppliers, the warehousers, et cetera. >> right. well, i like steve very much. i happen to run into him this weekend but we didn't talk about this. i wish i had the chance to. ocwen financial, just looking up today, it is interesting in that it is in the subprime and non-performing space, you really get that turbocharge if the housing market does improve. and you don't need to be tied to some of the other kind of names that you said that might already
5:13 pm
be well -- well beyond where the actual housing recovery is. >> i was there today, what he said on the housing thing interesting is a lot more ways to play than just the home builders although he does like lennar and putty, thinks they have more room. he mentioned american wood mark and a couple of other land-rich companies. he think that's the way to go companies that -- >> instead of hard assets? >> companies in growth regions that have land a lot of the home builders made big bets on land, not just on houses. >> you know, the other way, guy and i talked about this home depot has been killing it, right? play it even if the housing market comes in a bit, you still have those fixer uppers, still people that want to put money to work t has worked to the dismay of many shorts who thought it was very top i a while ago. >> say tuned, the ira sewn conference is going strong here still in new york city and expecting some presentations, among notably, david einhorn.
5:14 pm
we will check in with kate kelly. before break, check on after hours movers. groupon, look at this, jumping 12% on better-than-expected revenues, earnings in line.
5:15 pm
5:16 pm
5:17 pm
green mountain coffee extends its partnership with starbucks. herb greenberg joins us now. you have been a noted skeptic about this company but are you knew believer? >> it's not a question of being a skeptic or believer it is a question of looking at the
5:18 pm
numbers. the numbers in this quarter were not necessarily that great. you had sales missing estimates, excuse me, just looking at the -- listening to the call here. you have sales missing estimates, guidance for sales below estimates. sales growth slowing. non-operational issues, low lower cost of coffee. you have things you have to look at and say, hey, by the way, brewer sales were actually down. so, that's not something you want to see. but that said, you have a new management team in there actually new ceo. i think it is critical to note the starbucks deal done today, howard schultz interviewed by maria bartiromo earlier on cnbc, made a point how great there was a new ceo in there and that's what made it happen and heard similar things to people related to the company. that is part of the story.
5:19 pm
on the call right now, talking about changes they are making that will occur end of 2014 making structural changes, going to be -- they hope to do new innovation on different types of products. how will that affect the razor blade model? >> a lot to be said here. i know the stock market. i know how people trade these things. between here and there, that's what people are going to be dealing with, but the company is going to have to still, you know, provide some decent numbers. >> imagine on the call analysts are wondering about that gap between that lowered sales growth and target that has lowered compared to their own target they had given earlier, the new lower target is versus their own prior estimates and they are estimated installed base growth, 25 to 30%, so if you are looking at sales growth of this much and looking to install your base by 25 or 30%, something has got to give here. >> not backing down on that you have to remember something here, starbucks is in the business of selling coffee. they are going to do deals. the k-cup isn't going away. the kurig isn't going away. starbucks knows that the ver ries mow knocking the cover off the ball.
5:20 pm
a good partnership for them, positive for them, you raise the point with the discrepancy on the numbers. by the way, on the call, not backing down on the growth numbers next expect for the brewers. >> herb, thanks, herb greenberg from headquarters. >> hopefully, herb can still hear us, he does incredibly thoughtful work, the difference, we try to point out, the thoughtful work that herb do the other side, just looking at these things as trading instruments, basically all they are. on monday, we talked about the fact that these guys were going to report today and i was looking for a move up 2068, solely based on going to come out with a decent enough quarter and a 38% short interest. now, if you go chasing green mountain here, i don't know where it's trading now, i guess 66 1/2 or so, now you're trading wrong. this should you can the move to get out of a long position initiated last week, early this week, my view. >> one thing i want to bring out, the reason it is important to follow price and not try to think you know more about the story than everyone else, which
5:21 pm
is really hard to do, is that this stock kicked out of the nasdaq 100 and netflix, two of the biggest winners i have seen in a relatively short period of time since then. i think when you are trading as opposed to investing, sometimes the story itself is not as important as the price action you have to assume there are always going to be people who know more than you do shorting things like this because you think starbucks is going to put green mountain out of business, turns out it went the other way, starbucks likes them as a partner, i think that's why price will tell you when you are wrong and you can't just own these things in a vacuum and not study how other traders are treating them. >> let's move on to house. home prices and housing construction on the rise, some believe there are hidden riesesings to this recovery, fact or fiction, the momentum in housing has a solid foundation. joining us is michelle meyer, the senior u.s. economist at bank of america merrill lynch. great to have you with us. >> always nice to be here, melissa. >> we want to run through the notions in the market and fee
5:22 pm
there is any truth to them. investors and international buyers are the primary buyers pushing demand higher. you hear about all these funds, spending millions of dollars buying, renovating, renting and eventually flipping s this true? >> an important part of the market but they are not the primary force. nationally, investors make up about 22% of sales. certain key markets, they are much higher concentration. they have been quite important in terms of stabilizing the market. on balance, we have seen a return of primary home buyers. >> makes the housing recovery in your view, it is more stable because it is primary home buyers instead of investors? >> i think so a lot of the innishal turn had to do with investors in terms of the most distressed markets, we don't want to look past that a really important part of the housing recovery, but in terms of thinking about the national trends, the reason we are seeing so much market tightness is because we are seeing primary home buyers return to the
5:23 pm
market, expectations are higher in terms of where the future of home prices are going and non-distressed prices are turning higher. we saw that from the core logic numbers. >> let's get to the second notion here, the fed is whom how creating a bubble in house keeping interest rates so low. fact or fiction? >> i think that's fiction. one of the criteria for a bubble, you need to see overvaluation, that is not the case. prices are still modestly undervalued relative to income or rent. you need to see excess leverage. we are not in that environment. good share purchases are still on cash. the credit conditions are still quite, quite tight. >> number three here, something we have heard from a lot of the home builders in their earnings call, construction costs are rising, raw material, building costs are rising, that is going to prevent, this notion is that this will prevent home building from actually increasing and going forward, they will have to pass those costs on. >> so? an obstacle for home building
5:24 pm
and i think one of the reasons there is some ceiling to how much further gain we can see in terms of total construction. but it's not something that will derail it. so we can still see an increase in housing construction, given the fundamentals are supporting it inventory is low. demand is pick up, home prices are heading higher, builders will have the ability to pass on some of the higher input cost, not all of them, but some. i think it's a headwind, of course, but does not prevent home builders from adding to construction. i would say that's fiction, too. >> michelle, thanks so much for joining us. appreciate t michelle meyer, bank of america merrill lynch, dispelling some of the myths about the housing market. check in with josh lipton tracking some of the movers of the ira sohn conference a big one now, josh what is it? >> jonathan jacobson of high fields capital management speaking at the ira sohn investor conference a couple names he is flagging, one saying beware of at&t and t is down in
5:25 pm
the afterhours. also saying beware of lynn energy, ticker linn. the focus of his presentation is digital realty trust, ticker dlr. fundamentals are deteriorating no barriers to enter. you can see dlr down just about 5% now in the afterhours. back to you. >> thank you very much, josh lipton. we have had the ceo of digital realty before. it houses data centers. so, it plays in this whole notion of the cloud hosting outside of your own networks here but trading lower, sharply lower in the after hours session. >> another one of those dividend names people said, oh, a dividend, like bank, whatever, i will just buy it. a lot of these mortgage reads and regular reads that are paying yields that might not be sustainable, specifically in commercial and this one had that overlay of being a little bit fattish as well, 'cause people were saying, oh, it's play on the growth of facebook. no it isn't. >> and this is interesting, dl will rt is a pretty significant
5:26 pm
short interest in this one and i think those comments will empower the short sellers further so, again, think you will buy this one on the cheap tomorrow, i would say wait a little while. >> 38 forward pe as well. not an inexpensive name, not at its peak in the mid-70s, down from there, but not really. let's take a break here, next on "fast," after hours action, shares of groupon surging. your best trades ahead. and come back so stotock, yahoo trading at a five-year high. whether there is more room to run. she's always been able to brighten your day.
5:27 pm
5:28 pm
it's just her way. but your erectile dysfunction - that could be a question of blood flow. cialis tadalafil for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment's right. you can be more confident in your ability to be ready. and the same cialis is the only daily ed tablet approved to treat ed and symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently or urgently. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medications, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sexual activity. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as this may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess with cialis. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, seek immediate medical help for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or if you have any allergic reactions such as rash, hives, swelling of the lips, tongue or throat, or difficulty breathing or swallowing, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis for daily use
5:29 pm
and a 30-tablet free trial. has a lot going on in her life. wife, mother, marathoner. but one day it's just gonna be james and her. so as their financial advisor, i'm helping them look at their complete financial picture -- even the money they've invested elsewhere -- to create a plan that can help weather all kinds of markets. because that's how they're getting ready, for all the things they want to do. [ female announcer ] when people talk, great things can happen. so start a conversation with an advisor who's fully invested in you. wells fargo advisors. together we'll go far.
5:30 pm
yahoo! soaring a five-year fly. it is now outperforming tech darlings like google, apple and amazon this year. is yahoo! back from the brink? colin gills joins us from the salt conference in las vegas. colin, great to have you with us. >> it's great to be here, melissa. >> we pat you on the back on good calls, colin, we got to call you on the bad ones, the downgrade of yahoo! on march 20th would seem a bad call given that yahoo! stock is up 20% since that call. what did you miss? >> let's take it one step back, because i was a big bull on this name when it was in the teens and as it marched up, past that $20 level. and then at the end of march, i said to myself, you know, the core business is doing quite poorly and the display advertising revenues likely come in below expectation. we were right on that but we were wrong on the stock performance because people who are investing in this name now are investing for alibaba. >> you didn't anticipate that alibaba would be priced so high and at stock would run so much?
5:31 pm
>> i think the concern is, right, we don't know what the valuation of alibaba is going to be, so the difference between -- i understand the case for the stock to get to the $30 level. if you think alibaba is worth $130 billion and ipoing later this fall, later this year, early next year, fine. 10% upside left. it is very difficult to pick a number as to what the ipo is going to come out at and when it is going to come out at. and when you see the core business, the fundamentals of yahoo itself not improving yet and speculation surrounding alibaba really hitting a high pitch, you have to be cautious. >> colin, it's very precarious you start to see this stock climb back to the $30 level almost and now talking to google about replacing microsoft. do you think someone can take out yahoo!? is that worthwhile for someone? >> not any time soon and not while they still have all of these asset these still need to
5:32 pm
untangle. they need to resolve yahoo! japan, resolve their alibaba stake. not able to replace microsoft research with google until 2015, may be significant governmental roadblocks to that. so, again, the issue here is the stock is moving because people are valuing alibaba and expecting an ipo to hit later this year or early next year and the valuations that they are throwing out for this company i think are going to prove to be too optimistic. >> colin, you're constantly overcaffeinated state, las vegas must be an interesting place for you, but blackberry, r.i.m., something we are talking about, here at $15, you like at stock at 15 or hate it? we have street fought this a number of times i. >> sure. you know, look, i think the current quarter is going to be a decent quarter because it's channel inventory. always said there is going to be some initial demand for the >>s and the qs and put inventory into the channel but the concern is that the quarter after that is going to be -- is going to be weak but the demand is not going to sustain and that these guys
5:33 pm
don't have their cost structure cut down enough to be profitable. >> and colin, give me the ticker of your favorite pick in your coverage universe now. >> apl. still love apple, upgraded 390, still room to run. >> colin, great to have you with us. have fun out there colin gilles joining us from the salt conference. optionless traders seeing yahoo! soar higher by year end. mike what did you see? >> sellers of the october 26 and 27 calls were using some of the profits that they have made in those options the course of the last 30 dies buy more of the january 28 and 29 calls. i think this is consistent with what colin was just talking about, because these are speculative bullish bets, probably bets on the allibaba ad timed, much like you said, toward the end of the year here, best that the stock could actually rise another 15% by year's end. >> thanks for that, mike. time for pops and drops, big movers of the day. kick it off with a drop for value click, 16%. karen? >> not just a drop that's a
5:34 pm
disaster. not so much this quarter but guide lance, top line and bottom line for next quarter and then just a slew of downgrades, i think james cantor this one i would stay away from. >> a pop for walter energy, up 14%. steven? >> this is one of the stocks guy and i talking about short interest off the charts. if you are lucky enough to have held on, take this, run to the bank, sell the stock right here. >> a drop for aol, down 9%. guy? >> quarter wasn't great. valuation is rich. i forgot it was even a stock, to be honest with you. this is not the dip to -- i don't think this is the dip to buy. i would wait for the low 30s. >> you use a dial up, don't you? >> well, yeah. >> pop for whole foods, up 10%. mike khouw? >> 13%, sales growth, 6.9%, same-store sales growth, beat on the bottom line eps a nickel. the thing is this company, despite the fact a two for one
5:35 pm
stock split, looks a little rich on valuation at 35 times. i think this is a good time to take some profits. >> another disaster, fusion io, down 18%. josh brown? >> my experience with these kind of tech blowups, got to give them time before you do any bottom fishing. this one especially because it has wozniak and a little bit of a cult name and i think there's going to be some heartbreak and some reluctant sellers which leads me to believe you might get it cheaper if you really want to be in it, but be very careful. >> a pop here for tom hanks. >> what? >> the "bosom buddies" star better known for his title role as forrest gump voted the most trusted person in america. the big honor a i warded to hanks by a readers digest poll placing him in a league of his own. voters didn't just cast away their ballot to actors, bill gates, tim tebow and alex trebek all among the top 100 most trusted as well. >> remember when you and had i to dress up like girls to get that loft? >> we were actually the -- we
5:36 pm
were the inspiration for "bosom buddies." little known fact. up next, fast adviser how to play dow 15 k with ten years until retirement. plus, jpmorgan's jamie dimon under fire once again. how that could affect the stock's bank performance. later, tobacco killer, the special kind of cigarette major companies are starting to roll out even though it's been around for a while. details ahead. much more "fast." [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. ♪
5:37 pm
from td ameritrade. we asked total strangers to watch it for us. thank you so much. i appreciate it. i'll be right back. they didn't take a dime. how much in fees does your bank take to watch your money? if your bank takes more money than a stranger, you need an ally. ally bank. your money needs an ally. so you want to protect your place from burglars? buy a lock. buy a dog. mow the lawn. get a sign. hang curtains. plant something thorny. buy another lock. and, of course, talk to farmers. hi. hi! ♪ we are farmers bum - pa - dum, bum - bum - bum - bum ♪
5:38 pm
5:39 pm
welcome back to "fast money" live at the nasdaq market site, the dow at the 15,000 level now, how should you invest for the long term? bring in michael farr, the president of farr, miller and washington, one of our "fast" advisers, best allocation ideas for someone just ten years away from retirement. michael, i think a lot of people might be scared that they are chasing some stocks right now with ten years left to go to retirement. is >> and i think they are probably right. at this point, melissa, we are up north of 15,000. we have seen a 45% return over the last 18 months. so, if the rule is to buy low
5:40 pm
and sell high, this ain't low. but what we learned, of course, through the 1990s and a lot through the 2000s, things that look high can still go a lot higher. the group of people who feel like they lost out and they just got to get in now it can be an awful mistake, so, caution is the word and vigilance and don't let your emotions carry you away. >> so, what do you do? it does seem overwhelming, you want to be careful how you pick stocks you want to be in stocks ten years quite some time but you do want to have a decent allocation to sort of save for investments that might be income-bearing. >> association of american investors, aaii, says you should probably, with ten years left to retirement, should have a 50/50 allocation, 50% stocks, 50% bonds. the problem for a lot of investors right now though is
5:41 pm
50% bonds is returning bupkis. they want to reach out and see if they get more yield in the portfolio, usually a mistake because that extra yield adds extra risk, adds volatility for folks who can ill afford it at a time when they are got to start build a more stable platform for the rest of their lives. >> michael, we are going to leave it there. good advice as always, michael farr of farr, miller and washington. get a market flash here with josh lipton, taking a look at groupon. josh? >> that's right, melissa. groupon racing higher in the after hours, the daily deals company in line on the bottom line beats on the top line, 601 million versus 590 million. consolidated segment operate income, a closely watched negotiate xhur of profitability here, comes in at 51 million, better than guidance and consensus. last quarter. they missed on that measure. billings better than expect. groupson up more than 9% right now. melissa, back to you. >> thank you very much, josh lipton. >> i guess -- i guess the thing with groupson that revenues were never really the problem.
5:42 pm
the problem was whether or not the way they were growing with the company would be sustainable. i glance ted transcript. i really didn't get a sense that that's been addressed and i know there's still some management questions here as well who is going to be the driving force behind this? living social amazon's version of groupon doesn't have much good to say so just seems like it is a real tough industry now. i would avoid t coming up next it appears that the sky is the limit at sotheby's. why that could be a sign of an asset bubble in the art world as auction season kicks off. but first, they are not your father's cigarettes or grandfather's cigarettes, the big business behind e-cigarettes and the firestorm they are creating right now in the business. much more straight ahead. [ female announcer ] it's time for the annual shareholders meeting. ♪ there'll be the usual presentations on research. and development. some new members of the team will be introduced. the chairman emeritus will distribute his usual wisdom.
5:43 pm
and you? well, you're the chief life officer. you just need the right professional to help you take charge. ♪ to help you take charge. all stations come over to mithis is for real this time. step seven point two one two. verify and lock. command is locked. five seconds. three, two, one. standing by for capture. the most innovative software on the planet... dragon is captured. is connecting today's leading companies to places beyond it. siemens. answers. ♪
5:44 pm
(train horn) vo: wherever our trains go, the economy comes to life. norfolk southern. one line, infinite possibilities.
5:45 pm
jpmorgan chairman and ceo jamie dimon under fire again. jpmorgan invest letters vote later this month on the dual chairman ceo. look at how this could affect the stock in finerman's fine print.
5:46 pm
>> footage from my personal collection. so, here is the situation. this is becoming somewhat of an issue. the fine print is this is a non-binding proposal, meaning even if a majority of the share hold earth vote for a it the board doesn't have to do it. however, it would send a very strong message. so i looked recently, have we seen anything like this? if we look at not so distant past, look at disney, there was a similar proposition, proposal that they separate the roles and iger didn't get as much support as you would think, 38% of the shares voted to separate the roles. and the company sort of chose to ignore that. he is still the chairman and ceo. so, i think that 50% is clearly a big threshold, majority of the shareholders. that would be a majority of the shares outstanding not just the shares that vote.
5:47 pm
i think if he gets 50%, he will have to relinquish that i have never owned a stock because i loved who the chairman of the board was. i have owned a stock because i loved the ceo. >> jamie has said or alluded to the fact if it were separated, he would be very unhappy, which would raise the question of whether or not he would actually stick around, which might alienate more investors in the end. >> i think he would stick around. i don't know. i have no idea. but i mean, that is -- you know, he is great at it's great ceo. there is clearly a lot of negative pr surrounding this. it would be hard for them to ignore the share hold officers they did send such a message. >> marlboro cigarettemaker announcing last month it will begin rolling out e-cigarettes in the coming year. e-siggs may seem futuristic, but they are late to the party here. there have been cigarettes since 2010 and smoking the competition on this front. are e siggs the next big thing.
5:48 pm
what are the differences between an e sigg versus a regular sigg besides no secondhand smoke? >> contains 4,000 chemicals, tobacco tar, carbon monoxide and so on. electronic cigarettes is liquid vaporizer that delivers nicotine to you. are a dream come true for every smoker. i tried everything, the patch, the pills, the gum. it mimics the four addiction the smoker has, very important, the motion, hand-to-mouth, the vapor, the flavor as well as the nicotine. >> not being a smoker and not ever intending to smoke, part of smoking i would imagine is the cool factor, have your cigarette, the smoke's blowing, keith richards, put it in the neck of your guitar, did you find that people are avoiding this because of lack of cool
5:49 pm
factor or am i out of my mind? >> i said to begin with, smoking is not a cool thing. >> 100% agree. >> our product made for people who actually smoke cigarettes and looking for an alternative and this is why this product is -- >> how is it possible that every single smoker is not using this? what -- if you are a smoker, what would make you say, nah, i'm gonna stick with this thing that's killing me? what is the -- what do you find is the holdup? >> i will explain to you, the holdup is lack of education. in 2013, just in this market, spending approximately $6 million on education, educating the public about the new alternative to smoking, we need to educate the smokers, the first thing you hear from a smoker, i'm an old-fashioned guy, i like to smoke the real thing. me as an ex-smoker, i know for a fact, every time you put the cigarette in your mouth, you feel guilt. bad for you, your doctor, your wife, your child, your mother, everybody is telling to you put it down. we need to educate them about the new alternative it is here, the future is here and give it a trial. the product is working as an
5:50 pm
indoor smoking or the new alternati alternative. >> are you for sale? a lot of the traditional tobacco companies -- >> him or his -- >> don't sell yet. >> the industry is really -- our company is growing dramatically. in 2012, we report 600% growth. eight digits. the first quarter of 2013, we outsell. >> this yes or no? >> not for sale at this point. >> okay. >> that industry is going for approximately in the next five to six years, 15 to 20 billion dollars. and it's too early for one of those things. i think we need to -- more education for the public. need to give it a trial. the product is really working. >> okay. thanks for joining us. we appreciate it. coming up in the next hour of "mad money," cramer is getting a look at a play on the housing mark that's may have a foundation for growth. don't miss his exclusive with lumber giant, war houser.
5:51 pm
that at the top of the hour. we will trade your viewer tweets up next. there is talk about a stock bubble. >> painting by cezanne sold last night for $40 million, a painting of eight apples, that's $5 million per apple. see whether there's much juice left in the big spring auctions, coming up next. aties to generate income? with fidelity's new options platform, we've completely integrated every step of the process, making it easier to try filters and strategies... to get a list of equity options... evaluate them with our p&l calculator... and execute faster with our more intuitive trade ticket. i'm greg stevens and i helped create fidelity's options platform. it's one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account.
5:52 pm
5:53 pm
5:54 pm
spring art auctions got off to a strong start with buyers clamoring to get their handses on everything from picassos to rodin. art proved to be a great investment is this the hottest trade in the world now we are joined here by robert frank with more. >> today, it was talked about levitating assets and focused on stocks a lot today but another asset that's levitating is art. we see the start of that last night at sotheby's. sotheby's kicking off the spring auction season last night with the impressionist sale. more than $230 million was the sale total. they are going to sell more than $1 billion in art over the next week, along with christie's. some of the numbers were huge. last night, the big showstopper was the impressionist led by cezanne. a painting there called "les
5:55 pm
pommes" of apples, i said before, selling $40 million, way above the $35 million estimate. and modigliani's "amazon," sold for $26 million, in the middle of the estimate. there's a george brock piece that sold for more than $50 million. get this, the same piece sold for $200,000 in the 1980s and $3 million in 2000. a very good investment. you know, we talk about whether the dow 15,000 is sustainable. is the brock $15 million sustainable? is this an asset bubble? a lot of people asking that yet next week. >> that's good question here and there's another way to trade this, if you're not par at this timing in art yourself, at the auctions that is karen, through these auctions houses. sotheby's, first and foremost? >> sotheby's is really your only pure play. theirs has been a duopoly for a long, long time, a play on, you talked about tina there is no alternative. this is an alternative, actually in that art as an asset class is
5:56 pm
actually becoming -- >> just not very liquid you can god forbid this turns around, good luck selling modigliani. >> it is a bet on the creation of wealth around the world and sotheby's in particular has made a big push in china. this is a trophy property. sadly, i blew it, i don't own it now. i feel like buying it right in front of the auctions is like buying disney in front of "ironman." >> report tomorrow after the bell, maybe a shot and hopefully they miss, stock trades a little bit lower and grab it up. tomorrow, sotheby's after the bell. >> the other thing about the art market that suggest it may not be a bubble, it's really just the top quality piece by the top artists that are getting these crazy prices. there were some pieces last night, not so great, didn't sell. a very rational market. >> grasso's velvet tiger -- >> great dane smoking. cigarette. up next, your first move tomorrow. stay with us.
5:57 pm
i'm on expert on softball. and tea parties. i'll have more awkward conversations than i'm equipped for, because i'm raising two girls on my own. i'll worry about the economy more than a few times before they're grown. but it's for them, so i've found a way. who matters most to you says the most about you. at massmutual we're owned by our policyowners, and they matter most to us. ready to plan for your future? we'll help you get there.
5:58 pm
ars e s evs erywhere these days. s like etfs tdd: 1-800-345-2550 but there is one source with a wealth of etf knowledge tdd: 1-800-345-2550 all in one place. tdd: 1-800-345-2550 introducing schwab etf onesource.. tdd: 1-800-345-2550 it's one source with the most commission-free etfs. tdd: 1-800-345-2550 one source with etfs from leading providers tdd: 1-800-345-2550 and extensive coverage of major asset classes. tdd: 1-800-345-2550 all brought to you by one firm with tdd: 1-800-345-2550 comprehensive education, tools and personal guidance tdd: 1-800-345-2550 to help you find etfs that may be right for you.
5:59 pm
tdd: 1-800-345-2550 schwab etf onesource. tdd: 1-800-345-2550 for the most commission-free etfs, tdd: 1-800-345-2550 you only need one source and one place. tdd: 1-800-345-2550 start trading commission-free with schwab etf onesource. tdd: 1-800-345-2550 call, click or visit today. tdd: 1-800-345-2550 carefully consider prospectus information, tdd: 1-800-345-2550 including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. tdd: 1-800-345-2550 request a prospectus by calling schwab at 800-435-4000. tdd: 1-800-345-2550 read it carefully before investing. tdd: 1-800-345-2550 commission-free trades are only available online at schwab. tdd: 1-800-345-2550 fees and expenses apply. tdd: 1-800-345-2550 investing involves risks, including loss of principal. final trade, mike khouw? >> flr. >> grasso? >> google with an 860 stock. >> brown? >> du pont. >> finerman
6:00 pm
>> adt. >> adammy? >> i still think the yen weaken, so i think the best way to play the weakening yen is toyota, tm. >> i'm melissa lee. thanks for watching. follow me on twitter. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market zum somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now! hey, i'm cramer him welcome to "mad money"ment welcome to cramerica. i'm not here to make friends, i'm here to make you money. my job is not just to entertain. call me , 1-800-743-cnbc. we always want to give credit to fed chief

95 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on